Blue Origin
The second mover reaches the same market without paying for the firsts. Bezos funds it, NASA and the Space Force anchor it, and it runs leaner than SpaceX, which matters once the question shifts from whether this is possible to whether you can repeat it. It trades at a real discount to SpaceX on sales, which is why I own both.
Theme: Visionaries
The belief
As AI compounds capability, we do two things with it. We simplify what already exists: productivity, automation, self-driving cars, robots. And we push into milestones that never existed at all: space, drug discovery, gene editing.
The first category is where most of the money goes, because the payback is easy to model. The second is where the returns are, because almost nobody can fund the wait. This position is a bet on the second category.
Who wins
Two companies can put mass into orbit repeatedly. SpaceX spent two decades absorbing the firsts: reusability, launch cadence, human rating. Those were paid for once, and the whole industry now free-rides on them.
Blue Origin builds on that cleared path instead of blazing it. It has Bezos funding it, NASA and the Space Force as anchor customers, and an engine business that sells to its own competitors. It also runs leaner, with fewer people and less administrative weight than SpaceX, which matters now that the sector’s question has shifted from whether this is possible to whether you can do it again next month.
My position
On this year’s sales, SpaceX is priced at roughly twice Blue Origin’s multiple. Both are expensive by any normal standard, but the gap is real and it looks earned rather than simply uncaught-up.
So I own both rather than choosing. SpaceX is the position that proved the industry exists. Blue Origin is the one where the multiple still has room if execution holds.
What would make me wrong
Launch cadence is the whole argument. If New Glenn does not reach a repeatable flight rate, the discount to SpaceX stops being an opportunity and becomes a correct price for a company that cannot ship.
The other risk is that the gap closes from the wrong side. Analysts expect SpaceX revenue to multiply next year, almost all of it compute and AI rather than launch. If it lands anywhere near that, SpaceX becomes the cheaper of the two on forward sales and the discount argument dies. Blue Origin would then have to stand on the second-mover case alone, which is the part I actually believe.
Log
2026-09 Engine contracts with competitors remain the most underrated part of the business.