Investing since 2013
Philosophy
How I pick, what I hold to, and where the ideas came from. Then the themes I invest in, and what I hold in each.
How I pick
the rulesBuy assets, not liabilities. That one stuck before I had money to invest.
Behaviour decides more than analysis. My weak point is selling at the top, so most of this book is locked, illiquid, or hedged in a way that instinct cannot act on.
Then I hold. Numbers each quarter, the thesis once a year.
How I select an investment
- I can explain it in two sentences. What it sells, who pays, why they keep paying. If I cannot, I pass, however good the pitch was.
- The valuation is justified by growth, demand and execution. Not by the sector being hot. I write the band before I look at the quote: Microsoft at six to eight times sales, Berkshire near book.
- It fits a thesis I already hold, and I am confident enough to size it. Each theme is a hypothesis I wrote down first. If I am not confident enough to put real weight behind it, I am not confident enough to own it at all.
- I am proud to own it, and I keep following the story. Quarterly numbers, launches, the bad years too. If I stop caring enough to read, that is the signal to sell. Where I cannot follow the company closely, I follow the manager instead.
Where this came from
- Rich Dad Poor Dad
- Buy assets, not liabilities.
- The Psychology of Money
- Doing well with money is behaviour, not intelligence.
- Warren Buffett
- Buy good companies, do not overpay. Rule one is do not lose money.
- Behavioural investing
- Volatility moves money from people who cannot sit through it to people who can.
- Ray Dalio
- Watch debt, currency and cycles longer than one career.
Themes
where I think the next decade goes- 01
AI, chips and security 10 positions →
I believe AI is the next great disruption, one that lets humanity move in directions that were never possible before. The core beneficiaries of that transformation are the frontier labs pushing the limits and the chipmakers whose silicon runs them. Being in both for decades is how the alpha gets unlocked.
- 02
Easier everyday life 12 positions →
Most of my companies sit here: products that make an ordinary day easier, from banking in an app to nails done at home.
- 03
Space exploration 2 positions →
SpaceX made launch routine, and that is what opens the rest.
- 04
Medical research 1 position →
I expect big advances in medical research. AI for drugs and materials is where I am in so far.
- 05
Intelligent machines 2 positions →
Robots and driverless cars are where machines meet the physical world. Drones are where I am in so far.
- 06
Quantum and new computing 1 position →
New kinds of computing, such as quantum, open problems today's machines cannot touch.
- 07
Growing India 14 positions →
India has the fastest GDP growth of any large economy, and the buying power of its middle class is expected to rise. Today’s geopolitical tension and oil blockages put good companies at reasonable valuations. The beneficiaries are the exchanges everything trades through, the lenders behind the leverage cycle, and the premium brands that collect the spending on goods and services. I aim to hold all three.
Personal record, not investment advice. No amounts, position sizes, or returns disclosed.